三大模型的重叠、分歧与方法论差异
| GPT-5.4-PRO | Claude Opus 4.6 | Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 状态 | 已输出画像 | 已输出画像 | 已输出画像 |
| 聚焦赛道 | Defense & Hard Tech, AI Energy Infra, Biotech 2.0, Edge Computing & Memory | Defense & Hard Tech, Biotech 2.0, AI Energy Infra, Edge Computing & Memory | AI Energy Infra, Defense & Hard Tech, Edge Computing & Memory |
| 因子权重 | catalyst_strength:20 | dilution_risk:10 | revenue_certainty:30 | sector_heat:15 | valuation_gap:25 | catalyst_strength:20 | dilution_risk:10 | revenue_certainty:30 | sector_heat:15 | valuation_gap:25 | catalyst_strength:20 | dilution_risk:10 | revenue_certainty:35 | sector_heat:10 | valuation_gap:25 |
| 备注 | S&J stance is pragmatic growth at a reasonable setup. Prioritize companies with real revenue, visible demand, credible path to EBITDA or existing profitability, and exposure to hot sectors with durable spending tailwinds. Avoid concept stocks and fragile balance sheets. | This cycle rewards revenue-backed asymmetry over narrative. Valuation gap carries elevated weight because several high-sector-heat names (PLTR, RKLB, VST, NRG) already trade at consensus-priced multiples, capping upside skew. Defense & Hard Tech and AI Energy Infra offer durable secular tailwinds but only where the market still underprices the revenue trajectory. Biotech 2.0 names with commercial traction (CRSP, ARQT) deserve attention given near-EBITDA turns and manageable dilution. Edge Computing & Memory is included for CRDO's margin inflection story, though WOLF and NVTS carry meaningful dilution risk that must be monitored. RUN is flagged for compressed valuation but high dilution risk and thin cash runway make it a watch-only position. Dilution risk weight is raised to 10 from the default because several candidates sit at 45 with sub-18-month runways, which historically precedes secondary offerings that destroy asymmetric setups. | Prioritizing tangible revenue, structural tailwinds in AI infrastructure and defense, and clear paths to free cash flow generation. Avoiding speculative, high-dilution stories. |
S&J stance is pragmatic growth at a reasonable setup. Prioritize companies with real revenue, visible demand, credible path to EBITDA or existing profitability, and exposure to hot sectors with durable spending tailwinds. Avoid concept stocks and fragile balance sheets.
This cycle rewards revenue-backed asymmetry over narrative. Valuation gap carries elevated weight because several high-sector-heat names (PLTR, RKLB, VST, NRG) already trade at consensus-priced multiples, capping upside skew. Defense & Hard Tech and AI Energy Infra offer durable secular tailwinds but only where the market still underprices the revenue trajectory. Biotech 2.0 names with commercial traction (CRSP, ARQT) deserve attention given near-EBITDA turns and manageable dilution. Edge Computing & Memory is included for CRDO's margin inflection story, though WOLF and NVTS carry meaningful dilution risk that must be monitored. RUN is flagged for compressed valuation but high dilution risk and thin cash runway make it a watch-only position. Dilution risk weight is raised to 10 from the default because several candidates sit at 45 with sub-18-month runways, which historically precedes secondary offerings that destroy asymmetric setups.
Prioritizing tangible revenue, structural tailwinds in AI infrastructure and defense, and clear paths to free cash flow generation. Avoiding speculative, high-dilution stories.